Europe’s reliance on U.S. intelligence, a cornerstone of transatlantic security, is feeling shakier than ever as President Donald Trump’s second term raises doubts about America’s willingness to share critical data. From foiling Russian plots to tracking global threats, European officials worry that a White House prioritizing “America First” could leave them blindsided, prompting urgent calls to bolster their own spy networks while grappling with the risks of going it alone.
For decades, the U.S. has been Europe’s intelligence lifeline, providing satellite imagery, cyber intercepts, and tip-offs that thwarted attacks, like a 2024 Russian plot against a German arms CEO. But Trump’s recent moves—freezing data to Ukraine in March and ousting top intelligence officials—have rattled allies. Germany, heavily dependent on the CIA, still leans on U.S. insights for Russian threats, while France pushes for more European autonomy. A European diplomat in Brussels said, “We can’t afford to be left in the dark.” A 2025 EU report shows 80% of NATO’s intelligence comes from the U.S., but Trump’s team, led by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, seems less committed, with purges raising fears of degraded capabilities.
The shift stems from Trump’s skepticism of NATO and focus on China, coupled with a transactional view of alliances. His administration briefly cut satellite feeds to Ukraine, a move that spooked allies fearing similar treatment. Germany’s BND agency, despite its Frankfurt hub, lacks spy satellites until late 2025, and strict privacy laws hamstring data collection. At an April intelligence summit, European officials debated limited options, with France urging deeper EU collaboration. “We need our own eyes in the sky,” said a French official, though disparities in resources and Hungary’s pro-Russia stance complicate unity.
Reactions are tense. Berlin’s Anna Schmidt, a defense contractor, said, “Without U.S. data, our security’s at risk.” London’s James Carter, a retiree, fears escalation: “If Europe’s blind, Russia wins.” Small intelligence firms, like a Dutch cyber outfit, face budget strains as governments push for local solutions. Analyst Laura Klein from Oxford cautioned, “Trump’s not wrong to push self-reliance, but cutting us off abruptly is reckless.” A June 2025 poll shows 65% of Europeans want stronger domestic intelligence, but 70% still trust U.S. cooperation.
The implications are stark. A U.S. pullback could miss threats like Russia’s 2024 cargo plane sabotage, endangering lives and trade. Europe’s $150 billion defense spending hike aims to fill gaps, but building satellites and cyber networks takes years, costing billions. Small nations like Estonia, reliant on U.S. data, face heightened risks near Russia’s border. Yet reduced dependence could strengthen EU sovereignty, cutting reliance on an unpredictable ally.
Looking ahead, Europe plans a 2026 intelligence-sharing pact, but funding and political will lag. Trump’s meeting with Putin this month fuels fears of leaked secrets. “We must cooperate but diversify,” Klein said. For now, Europe’s scrambling to secure its own intelligence, hoping to avoid a dangerous blind spot in a volatile world.
