The United States has begun evacuating nonessential personnel from its embassy in Baghdad, citing rising tensions with Iran over stalled nuclear talks, a move that’s stoking fears of conflict in an already volatile region. As diplomats pack up, Iraqis and Americans alike are bracing for what could escalate into a broader crisis, with questions swirling about whether military posturing will spiral out of control.
The State Department’s decision, announced Wednesday, follows warnings from Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh that Tehran could target U.S. bases if negotiations collapse. With talks in Oman set for Sunday, the U.S. is skeptical of Iran’s claim that its nuclear program is peaceful, while Tehran accuses Washington of fueling instability. The Baghdad embassy, already on skeleton staffing, will see limited departures, but the Pentagon also authorized voluntary exits for military dependents in Bahrain and Kuwait. “We’re keeping Americans safe,” a State Department official said, though Iraqi officials downplayed specific threats.
The backdrop is a region on edge. Trump’s hardline stance, including threats to “bomb” Iran, contrasts with his reluctance for war, but General Michael Kurilla’s strike plans signal readiness. Iran’s “missile city” unveiling and attacks by its proxies, like 2024’s strikes on U.S. bases, heighten the stakes. Iraq, caught between allies, hosts 2,500 U.S. troops, but Tehran-backed militias wield influence. A 2025 Reuters report notes oil prices spiked $3 on evacuation news, reflecting economic jitters.
Baghdad residents are anxious. Shopkeeper Ali Hassan said, “Every time the U.S. and Iran fight, we suffer.” Virginia diplomat Sarah Lee, whose friend was evacuated, worried, “This feels like 2020 all over again.” Small businesses near the embassy fear closures if violence erupts. Analyst Reza Marashi questioned the U.S. narrative: “Iran’s threats are loud, but they’ve avoided direct war. Is this evacuation precautionary or provocative?” A June poll shows 60% of Iraqis want foreign troops out, reflecting local fatigue.
The move could signal de-escalation if talks progress, but a breakdown risks strikes, endangering 5,000 U.S. troops region-wide. Small economies like Iraq’s, reliant on oil, face disruption if shipping routes close. Critics argue the U.S. overstates Iran’s nuclear threat to justify militarization, noting Tehran’s compliance with past deals. A conflict could cost $1 trillion, per think tank estimates, hitting global markets.
Sunday’s talks in Muscat are pivotal. If Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff secures concessions, tensions may ease. But Israel’s reported plans to hit Iranian sites, without U.S. backing, complicate diplomacy. “Both sides need a face-saving exit,” Marashi said. For now, the evacuation underscores a region teetering between war and wary restraint.
