WASHINGTON, November 13, 2026 – Go for a stroll down the international arrivals corridor at JFK International Airport on a crisp Friday morning, and there will still be plenty of rolling luggage and airport coffee stops. However, what will be noticeably absent are the affluent foreigners who once crowded the hotels of Midtown Manhattan, Broadway theaters, and stores on Fifth Avenue all the way until fall.
Record domestic vacations. Higher prices for flights and hotels. Almost $11 billion in lost foreign money.
Why is the growing discrepancy between international tourism revenues now sounding alarms from Capitol Hill to coastal gateway cities? Because international tourists spend much more per visit and stay longer than domestic tourists—and when international tourism revenues are down, tax revenues, municipal budgets, and hospitality employment suffer a direct blow that domestic tourism just cannot make up for alone.
According to the U.S. Travel Association’s fall forecast, released November 5th, inflation-adjusted international visitor spending in the U.S. will decrease by almost $11 billion in 2026, representing a 6.3% year-over-year decrease that will drive total inbound revenue down to $163 billion. But even worse, it means that foreign spending will be about 25% lower than pre-pandemic 2019 levels, while total arrivals are expected to reach 67.8 million, and international arrivals are not expected to recover to 2019 levels until 2030.
“The election is over, but the economic stakes are only getting higher,” said Geoff Freeman, president and CEO of the U.S. Travel Association, warning that lawmakers face a December 11 federal funding deadline to safeguard holiday travel and a new year to reverse the loss of international visitors.
And the contradiction that hospitality executives find difficult to grapple with is this: American citizens have not ceased taking vacations. It’s anticipated that Americans will make a record high of 2.44 billion domestic visits, yet the actual expenditure for vacation travel within the nation will register a fall of 0.7% at $1.35 trillion. What makes that possible? The rise in vacation expenses has been 7.2%, more than twice the increase in the inflation rate of 3.4%.
Look at New York City, and you see how fast that math bites. Citing NYC Tourism + Conventions data, the U.S. Travel Association notes that international guests accounted for roughly half of the city’s tourism spending in 2025, and that the broader visitor economy supports 397,000 jobs and generates $7.5 billion in tax revenue. Miami, Orlando, Los Angeles, and San Francisco face similar exposure whenever long-haul travelers choose rival destinations instead—and globally, U.S. international arrivals are forecast at 67.8 million in 2026, down 14.6% from 79.4 million in 2019, even as France (+23.1%), Spain (+27.7%), and Japan (+40.7%) are all projected to surpass their 2019 levels.
Industry experts identify the continued high cost of trips, visa processing delays, and defunding of international destination marketing as important factors impacting demand from overseas. However, no one claims that one piece of legislation can solve the issue of currency conversion or the pricing of trips around the world.
Yet, tourism professionals contend that the U.S. Congress can address self-imposed obstacles instantly. Tourism employs over 15 million Americans and provides almost $92 billion annually in revenue through state and local taxes. In turn, U.S. Travel is lobbying Congress to pass a budget that secures salaries for the TSA workers and air traffic controllers before December 11, and then in 2027 to approve and fund Brand USA, process visas faster, waive additional fees and obstacles, and ensure airport safety.
“Standing still is not a strategy,” Freeman insisted—and for hoteliers, restaurateurs, and airport workers watching occupancy soften in major gateway cities, the warning feels urgent.
